NOAA/NCEP CFS V2 Forecasts Strongest January La Nina on Record

North America “Polar Vortex” Pattern The Next 15 Days
10/15/2020, 7:53 am EDT
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Discussion: The most recent NCEP CFS V2 Nino34 SSTA forecast indicates a robust La Nina ahead including a January 2021 (cold) peak of -2.6C. If correct, the January Nino34 SSTA would be the coolest in the 1950-2020 climatology. Previously, the coolest Nino34 SSTA for January were in the -1.64 to -1.98 range with the 1989 La Nina the strongest on record (for January). Interestingly, dissimilar to other previous strong La Nina the model indicates La Nina 2020-21 weakens quickly through late Q1 and Q2 of 2021. La Nina climatology during DEC/JAN/FEB favors a dry climate across the southern U.S., cold pattern for Western Canada, wet weather in north/northeast Brazil and a wet regime for Indonesia. Eastern Australia and Southeast Asia are likely wetter than normal. South Africa is wet while tropical eastern Africa turns dry.