Negative phase Indian Ocean Dipole is forecast to develop the next 1-3 months. Coupled with La Nina a wet Australia climate ahead is likely. 2010 and 1998 were -IOD years with La Nina present during quarter 4. The result was a very wet climate across northern and eastern Australia.

Research (Greg McCabe, Julie Betancourt and Michael Palecki) has shown that the -PDO/+AMO regime has a tendency to increase drought risk across the Southwest and Midwest U.S. during the warm season. The current U.S. soil moisture regime certainly recognizes the -PDO/+AMO influence on late summer soil moisture.

The NOAA/NHC storm surge forecast has increased to 15-20 feet near the TX/LA state line eastward along the southwest coast of Louisiana. The storm surge is 10-15 feet on the upper Texas coast and 10-15 feet central Louisiana coast. The forecast identifies a record storm surge for this location with catastrophic coastal damage extending well inland for low-lying land and also major loss of life for anyone along or just inland the coast.

Laura should easily reach category-3 hurricane intensity in the western half of the Gulf of Mexico midweek and possibly a category-4 hurricane prior to striking the northwest Gulf of Mexico coast early Thursday.