Q4 of 2021: Soaking wet Brazil/Australia; drought SE Brazil to Argentina.

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Record warm SSTA in the South Atlantic tropics is the catalyst for a wet climate which defeats Brazilian drought into the summer 2021-22 season. The wet pattern is compensated for by a dry climate in Southeast Brazil to northeast Argentina where drought develops. Meanwhile regenerating La Nina brings a wet climate to Australia.

Q4 of 2021: Soaking wet Brazil/Australia; drought SE Brazil to Argentina.

Fig. 1: Global soil moisture anomalies for September 2021 and 3-month trend

September 2021 global soil moisture 3-month trend: The North America soil moisture is the tale of two regimes. The South/Southeast/East U.S. turned wetter during late northern hemisphere summer while just-the-opposite – a drought – continued for the West and North U.S. and across southern Canada (Fig. 1). In South America, drought strengthened across much of Brazil although the central northern coast of South America was much wetter. Chilean drought has intensified. In Europe, a mixed character as a drier trend extended across parts of France to Italy while just to the east much of the Black Sea region was wetter. Northwest Africa was drier. Northwest Eurasia is still wet but less so than mid-summer. The dry zone in West-central Russia/Kazakhstan strengthened. Farther to the east, Northeast Eurasia is drier and Southeast China turned drier. India is less wet but Southeast Asia and Indonesia trend somewhat wetter. The NOAA/CPC data indicates a drier soil moisture pattern for Australia which is in conflict with wetter values presented by Australia Bureau of Meteorology

Fig. 2: Global soil moisture anomalies for September 2021 and 3-month forecast.

October 2021 global soil moisture 3-month outlook: High confidence forecast regimes are indicated (only). There are several extremely important pattern changes ahead based on the forecast. Brazil and Australia are forecast to enter a wetter regime which would end drought in Brazil and prevent drought in Australia (Fig. 2). Southeast Asia and Indonesia have been wet and that wet climate will continue. Meanwhile dryness which enhanced or leads to drought is likely in Southeast Brazil to Argentina and Chile. Southwest and tropical East Africa also trend much drier. In the northern hemisphere dry zones are evident across the Southwest U.S., Caribbean Islands, northwest Africa to Southwest Europe and also a large sector of the Middle East reaching Southern Russia.