The end of July 2024 global marine heatwave assessment from NOAA indicated that 35% of the oceans are in marine heat wave status. The monthly observation ranks 14th highest in the nearly 400 months of observations dating back to 1991. NOAA indicates MHW coverage of 35% now will decrease to about 30% by October 2024.

After a month-long dormant period, the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) has reactivated over the tropical Indian Ocean. The 15-day forecast utilizing all operational models indicates MJO will move east to Maritime Continent over the next 15 days. The MJO enhances convection, certainly evident in the tropical Indian Ocean and surrounding areas (Africa, India, and Western Indonesia) now where heavy rain is occurring.

A comparison between the Climate Impact Company constructed analog and NOAA/CPC probabilistic forecast for meteorological winter 2023-24 is, not surprisingly, reasonably similar. NOAA/CPC expands drought in the West-central/Central U.S. this autumn season. The Southeast/East Coast are at risk of tropical cyclone strikes the next couple months.

The North Atlantic basin is becoming ripe for a sudden uptick in tropical cyclone activity after Ernesto. ECMWF indicates many ALERTS for tropical cyclone development for later in August to mid-September. During this time, several to as many as 5 hurricanes may emerge.