West of Chile a new and potent marine heatwave (MHW) has formed. The northeastern South Pacific MHW is intensifying rapidly. A long-standing MHW in the Caribbean Sea remains impressive. Aloft, each MHW has an influence on the upper air pattern. The new MHW off the Chilean Coast is well-correlated to an amplified high-pressure area forecast by AIFS through the next 15 days. High pressure also rests over the warm Caribbean Sea.

The Australia outlook for FEB/MAR/APR 2025 indicates unusually hot and dry climate across northern continent, persistent rains on the East Coast, and marginally hot and dry across Southwest Australia. Drought concern is across the northern and east-central continent plus the interior southeastern region. A fine line exists between wet and dry soil regions away from the coast in the East. The forecast is propelled by ongoing weak La Nina and the marine heat waves on either side of the continent.

The waves of cold air into the U.S. during January 2025 has caused the projected U.S. population weight HDD to 1060 for the mid-winter month which eclipses the previous high of 1045 in 2014 (Table 1). The cold spikes are vividly indicated in important energy sectors such as PJM-East, PJM-West, and ERCOT.

Using ALL models, the forecast consensus of minimum temperature in Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio is near or slightly colder than the just-ended cold regime although shorter in duration. The coldest morning of the January 19-22 cold spike forecast is colder than the just-ended episode for Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio.