NOAA/SPC projects strong thunderstorms across the East and Southeast U.S. for today. Included is a severe weather risk caused by damaging wind potential in Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey. The event is lengthy, mid-afternoon to midnight, therefore repeat events can cause excessive rain and flooding most likely in the Washington/Baltimore area.

On about July 1st, the AIFS (AI forecast process) becomes the improved and operational AIFS ENS. Up until now, publicly available AI forecast processes skill scores have strongly favored Graph Cast. A look at today's 15-day percent of normal rainfall forecast for the U.S. AG Belt identifies the large disparity between GFS, ECM ENS, and AIFS ENS. Knowing the large-scale climate pattern and recent skill scores are suggested to identify which model to use operationally.

An arc of tropical moisture extending across Mexico from the western Gulf of Mexico and northeastward to the Midwest U.S. is (clearly) evident in the 5-day rainfall forecast equally combining GFS and ECM. Outflow boundaries from the Midwest rains trigger thunderstorms across the Southeast U.S. In the 6-10-day period, the Mexico/Southwest U.S. Wet Monsoon intensifies.

The CFS V2 month ahead forecast for the U.S. valid July 2025 indicates widespread above normal temperature from the southern Great Plains and Texas to the Northeast U.S. The southern Great Plains and Texas are where the hottest daytime temperature anomalies occur due to the combination of heat and drier than normal mid-summer climate.