During the past 10 days the upper ocean heat in the equatorial North Atlantic has diminished rapidly and is already approaching the cool (subsurface) peak last November when La Nina 2020-21 peaked.

All primary seasonal forecasts for the North Atlantic tropics are updated. The seasonal forecasts indicated include the activity observed so far. The Climate Impact Company added 1 major hurricane and increased the ACE index. However, both Colorado State University and Tropical Storm Risk U.K. lowered their forecast from previous and are each now very close to Climate Impact Company. The NOAA/NHC forecast increased.

A strong positive phase Pacific North America index brings excessive heat peaking Wednesday in the Pacific Northwest while an equally impressive strong positive phase of the North Atlantic oscillation later this week causes extreme heat by early next week in the Mid-Atlantic region.

The Climate Impact Company North Atlantic seasonal tropical cyclone season forecast is updated. The activity forecast is similar to the early June outlook but adjusted more intense with an additional major hurricane and high accumulated cyclone energy index.