The latest Climate Impact Company month 1-3 ahead forecast is issued shortly. The accompanying high impact climate forecast indicates persistent excessive heat and a drought for much of the West and Central U.S. plus a hot/humid July in the Northeast States. Excessive rains are likely for the Mid-Atlantic to Ohio Valley region.

Soil moisture forecasts confidently present a problem for the Great Plains during summer 2022 as drought is clearly indicated. Already U.S. soil moisture has aerial coverage of D1, D2, D3 and D4 drought conditions similar to the 2012 historic drought.

The Australia Bureau of Meteorology is projecting an intense negative phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (-IOD) to evolve during early winter and peak in intensity during quarter 3 of 2022. The -IOD pattern will sustain the La Nina-inspired persistent upper-level low-pressure trough pattern over Southeast Australia which has caused many excessive rainfall events.

Big years are agreed upon for North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. Interestingly, the North Atlantic is cooling steadily. The tropical North Atlantic index has dipped to -0.33C. Meanwhile the cool phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation continues. Eastward expansion of ocean heat wave NEP22A will need to shift toward the North America coast to end the -PDO regime which is very much in question right now.