The northern Gulf of Mexico SST pattern has warmed to 85-88F (29-31C) in June. Daily SSTA analysis reveals these values are 3-4C warmer than normal. During the recent (2016-21) North Atlantic basin active tropical cyclone period when seasonal tropical storm average has exceeded 19 (normal is near 14), tropical cyclones moving into the western or northern Gulf of Mexico across 87F/31C SST (Harvey, Michael, Laura, Delta and Ida) have transitioned into category-4 major hurricanes just-before making landfall.

Oceanic La Nina continues to weaken. The Nino34 SSTA is just-within the La Nina threshold at -0.6C. In the subsurface, the equatorial East Pacific is warming and east of the Dateline upper ocean heat is now warmer than normal.

Using today's 12Z GFS identifies an immense heatwave forecast for Texas to the Southeast U.S. next week. Temperatures trend a little hotter each day with historical records most likely to strike Houston and Atlanta. Readings in the 103-106F range are likely for each location with heat index reaching 115F.

Frequently referred to research identifying PDO/AMO regimes combined influence on U.S. drought risk was published by McCabe, Palecki and Betancourt in 2004. The influence of long-term -PDO/+AMO regimes on U.S. drought risk is elevated for the Southwest and West-central U.S. plus Texas and also the Midwest States. The Southwest U.S. to Texas drought is already locked-in while the Midwest U.S. has avoided drought so far. But that will change during mid-to-late summer!