Expected is a drier climate bias across South America due to emergence of Madden Julian oscillation in the tropical Indican Ocean/Maritime Continent over the next 2-3 weeks. The drier bias is underway during the past week centered on Paraguay, Northern Argentina, and Southeast Brazil. In South America, drought conditions continue across many sectors.

Red Flag Warnings issued due to high fire risk are relatively rare for the northern Mid-Atlantic to southern New England States. However, warnings for high fire risk have been common during late meteorological autumn across this region as historical drought has developed. The powerful atmospheric subsidence to produce the drought is related to the recent evolution of an upper air pattern caused by the North Atlantic Warm Hole.

-NAO pattern inspires a vigorous stormy and cold trough across Europe centered on the 6-10-day period. Snow cover has lagged over northwestern Eurasia. However, during the next 10 days snow cover widens into Europe. ECMWF warms Europe in early December; prefer the colder CFS V2 forecast as meteorological winter arrives.

Likely related to latent heat release of late season tropical cyclones in both the North Atlantic and Northwest Pacific, a gathering of anomalous warm air aloft leading to a high-pressure block convenes over Greenland characteristic of a strong negative phase North Atlantic oscillation. In the middle latitudes, compensating cold trough patterns develop and replace the prevailing very warm climate of autumn 2024.