Typhoon Fung-Wong peak intensity was 943 MB supporting a category-4 typhoon east of the Philippines. Does heat release from weakening Fung-Wong influence the polar climate mid-to-late November? Partially, but with significant help from warming over Greenland already in-place due to effects from Category-5 Major Hurricane Melissa (892 MB). Gradually, the polar region high pressure block expands and causes a cold trough in the U.S. for December.

The Climate Impact Company month 1-4 outlook valid DEC-25 through MAR-26 is updated. The forecast is trending colder. The North-central U.S. cold anomalies expand, and the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic are adjusted cooler to near normal. Cold outbreaks cover the suddenly snowbound Northern U.S. in December, a January cold surge into the East U.S., and Western Canada to North-central U.S. cold (possibly reaching Texas) in February.

The North America snow cover lagged below normal during mid-autumn thanks to a warm Canadian climate while advection snows across the open water north of Eurasia during October allowed snow cover to build above normal during mid-autumn for the 15th straight year.

Generally, sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events capable of producing arctic outbreaks are considered more likely during easterly phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (-QBO). Past winter seasons when -QBO was developing in November, similar with 2025, and peaking during the winter season, similar with winter 2025-26 expectation, are identified (since 1979).