Departing September, GRACE-based soil moisture anomalies analysis reveals improving conditions in the central/east-central Brazil soybean-growing areas while harsh drought in the southern soybean-growing areas receives beneficial rainfall in the latest 15-day outlook. The far eastern soybean growing-areas remain in drought with a dry outlook during the next 15 days.

Negative Indian Ocean dipole (-IOD) contributes to Central and East Australia rainfall during winter and spring while La Nina biases eastern continent wet. Both climate signals emphasize a wet bias to Australia climate and diminish dry risk. The -IOD regime is well established while borderline weak La Nina is present but without a clear atmospheric response. Consequently, the anticipated wet climate for early spring is patchy, based on September rainfall terciles. Note the dryness in key Australia crop areas in Victoria and eastward.

Since last month, it’s getting more difficult to make the case for significant cold this winter season. The November forecast edges warmer, and DEC/JAN is already warm. FEB cold risk remains but confidence is lower. MAR chill remains in the forecast. Forecast models are warm. Mid-latitude oceans are warm. The orientation of mid-latitude SSTA supporting cold weather in North America this winter season showed potential one month ago but are eroding since that time.

Major Hurricane Humberto disrupts steering currents associated with the North Atlantic subtropical ridge tomorrow enabling westerly flow aloft to turn both Humberto and Imelda northeastward away from the U.S. East Coast. Tropical storm force winds affect Bermuda from outer bands of Humberto tomorrow and again later this week as Imelda passes.