STRIKING is the weakening of anomalous cool waters in the equatorial East Pacific during October. Note that the cool anomalies present in the subsurface equatorial Pacific are about 30% of the strength present this past January which supported a moderate strength La Nina episode. Unless upper ocean heat across the equatorial Pacific to the east of the Dateline cools dramatically over the next few weeks, the current La Nina will end.

The anomalous warm middle/northern latitude oceans help to bias North America and Europe warmer than normal well into November. However, ECM indicates potential for cooling to near normal in the U.S> during Thanksgiving week.

October was wet across much of the Black Sea region eroding drought conditions. However, the weather pattern changes as November approaches. Forecast models indicate a very dry pattern through the first half of November in the Black Sea AG regions. Lack of snow cover across Northwest/North Eurasia biases the climate pattern warm. Snow cover continues to reach far southward in Northeast Asia.

A review of the OCT-25 precipitation climate across South America so far reveals a drier than normal regime across Central to Southeast Brazil which justifies ongoing below normal soil moisture observations from NOAA. Argentina has been mixed yielding mostly normal to wetter than normal soil conditions. A wetter Brazil forecast is indicated, initially associated with the ongoing negative Antarctic oscillation, and continuing later in November due to a wet monsoon.