NOAA/CPC issues another heavy snow risk alert for the East U.S. valid February 19-21. Additionally, state rankings for January 2025 were released by NOAA. The month was 33rd coldest on record in the 1895-2025 climatology. The month was very dry ranking 6th driest all-time!

The U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast is becoming impressively cold for next week and late February with a significant colder revision since yesterday. Medium-range forecasts shift the cold across the high population of the East U.S. to increase national heating demand into late meteorological winter.

The Australia season 1-4 ahead outlook is updated. The forecast is valid for meteorological autumn 2025 through summer 2025-26. The forecast is based on an ENSO climate favoring La Nina, neutral Indian Ocean dipole, and the influence of marine heat waves either side of the continent. Forecast highlights include a persistent wet climate in southeastern Australia likely through next summer while next winter is warmer than normal.

Utilizing CFS V2 extended range forecasts of the stratosphere there is not an obvious sign of an emerging sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event during late FEB/early MAR. The ECM forecast is not available. HOWEVER, a major slowdown of the global atmospheric angular momentum (GLAAM) is in the forecast through mid-March. When -GLAAM occurs, the mid-latitude upper-level pattern has the tendency to produce amplified low-pressure troughs.