During October, Northwest Argentina turned very wet. During the past week, the wet pattern in Argentina shifted slightly southward and remains intense. Meanwhile, a separate wet weather pattern has emerged during the past week in Brazil featuring drought suppressing heavy rains from East-central Brazil eastward to the coast.

A major heat wave is emerging in the medium range across Australia. A high-pressure ridge amplifies across Western Australia into early next week causing the onset of the hot weather pattern. East-coastal Australia is cool into early next week. However, the upper ridge is progressive, and the heat wave advances across Australia in the 6-10-day period according to the latest AI model, EXCARTA.

A wet pattern has developed over the past week across the Brazil drought region. The outlooks maintain the wet pattern featuring some excessive rains in the 10-day outlook. The ECMWF "weeklies" maintain the wet pattern through the first third of November. Significant easing the drought conditions is likely!

The Nino SSTA regions are locked-in on neutral phase. There is no shift in trend to indicate La Nina onset. In the subsurface, the anomalous cool water to fuel La Nina is diminishing. Most of the cool water is between 100 and 150 meters with about half the strength of several weeks ago.