The second burst of arctic air projected for late this week in the U.S. is trending colder. The U.S. gas weighted HDD forecast indicates a second peak for the January 2024 cold episode occurring on Saturday. The second cold peak is just short of the amplitude of yesterday’s peak cold.

The polar front has stalled on the Texas Coast with an area of low pressure forming off the South Texas Coast. A mild marine easterly flow off the Gulf is induced and slows the southward progress of the arctic front. Consequently, a large area of freezing rain causing an ice accretion is likely in central and eastern Texas shifting into Louisiana for later today and through tonight.

"Bomb cyclones" and following frigid arctic air warrant a winter storm name "Gerri". A trail of El Nino storms producing near or less than 980 MB low pressure systems continues. The latest super storm is over the eastern Great Lakes with attendant storminess producing more flooding rains with high wind in the Northeast States while blizzard conditions from the Midwest to the Great Lakes persist. Wind chill warnings are posted by NOAA for the Great Plains as a following arctic air mass is poised to release into the U.S.

A glance at U.S. energy regions for system temperature utilizing all operational models through the next 15 days to best identify days of highest impact related to extreme cold. Spiking cold is shown farther south (ERCOT) while long duration cold is shown for the Central/East-central U.S. (PJM-W and MISO).