The NCEP CFS V2 Nino34 SSTA forecast has relentlessly been forecasting a flip from the current strong oceanic El Nino to similarly intense La Nina by the end of 2024. Given the strength of the current El Nino and the general oceanic anomalous warmth poleward of the Pacific tropics, a rapid shift toward strong La Nina seems unrealistic. The latest NCEP CFS V2 Nino34 SSTA forecast insists on a decline in El Nino with neutral ENSO by April, weak La Nina by June, and strong La Nina by October. A recent development supportive of this forecast is the sudden loss of upper ocean heat across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

Entering 2024, drought concern in the southern hemisphere was present across Brazil, South Africa, and much of Australia. Interestingly, the drought focus as mid-summer approaches in Australia shifts to the western continent as heavy rains have affected parts of the East while the wet monsoon has emerged across the North. In South America, Argentina drought is nearly dissipated although short-term forecasts are hot and dry. Meanwhile, a dry start to summertime in Brazil reverses wetter in January.

Strong convection phase of the Madden Julian oscillation north of Australia inspires heavy rain in Northern Australia and tropical risks for both northwestern Australia and Queensland while the western desert heat expands eastward to Queensland and New South Wales.

El Nino 2023-24 roars on but signs of weakening ahead have emerged. Cooling subsurface waters in the West Pacific have shifted east of the Dateline during January. Warm waters just beneath the surface of the equatorial Pacific to sustain El Nino remain, but the emerging cool waters are likely to expand and weaken/dissipate Pacific surface warming over the next several months. Expect neutral ENSO during Q2/2024 and La Nina by Q3/2024.