While Saharan Dust has suppressed tropical cyclone activity for much of July, the mid-troposphere is quite wet and supports a buoyant tropical cyclone season ahead once the Saharan Dust issue eases likely by the middle third of August.

The U.S. population weight CDD forecast explodes to well above normal August 2-8. The GFS is the hottest model, but all ensembles are trending hotter. Contributing to the increasing CDD during early August are hotter forecasts in the PJM-East sector.

Deep layer soil moisture deficits are generally the result of a long-term dry climate pattern. When long duration (7-10 days) hot and dry weather moves across these regions, quick evolving (flash) drought can generate. These conditions are possible in the southeast Great Plains including Eastern Kansas to Central Oklahoma during late JUL/early AUG.

The latest 12Z ECM and GFS 6-10-day temperature anomaly outlook is agreeable to developing extreme heat in the central Great Plains. High temperatures reach 100F-105F from the Dakotas to Oklahoma during the period. Using ECM, the peak day is day-10 which is July 31. The 12Z ECM ENS widens the impressive heatwave back into the West, still peaking in the Central U.S., and stretching to eastern North America.