The 2024 North Atlantic basin tropical cyclone season is forecast to potentially be the most active on record given the unusually warm North Atlantic Ocean surface and anticipated evolving La Nina climate. Given this scenario, concern is increasing regarding a wet climate (due to tropical activity) in the Gulf of Mexico and the latent heat release of that convective rain northward to cause the atmosphere to warm and high pressure to form in the Ohio Valley where EDDI shows drought potential.

Entering June 2024, ENSO is in neutral phase. The trend toward (expected) La Nina is apparent, but barely. Needed are stronger trade winds to up-well anomalous cool waters east of 140W longitude in teh equatorial Pacific to cool surface temperatures and cause them to extend westward to initial La Nina. We have a way to go before that happens.

A persistent marine heatwave in the mid-latitude West Pacific has elevated high pressure aloft risk for much of the past several years. A strong marine heatwave in the Northeast Pacific in 2014-16 having tendency to re-emerge in that area last decade shifted westward toward the China Coast and eastward to the Dateline in this decade. The marine heat wave is vividly evident east of China and Japan now and aloft is well-correlated to strong high-pressure ridging extending across the mid-latitude West Pacific to Mongolia during the past 45 days.

The latest forecast remains steady with 21 tropical storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes expected. The Climate Impact Company hurricane tracks forecast indicates 7 of the 11 hurricanes will strike the U.S. Several of these coastal strikes could be major hurricanes.