During early May a cold upper trough across Northwest Russia intensified leading to an unusually cold outbreak of air which shifted southward into Russia’s wheat belt peaking in intensity earlier this week. The wintery chill extended southward over bare ground causing damage to the spring and winter wheat growing areas in Southwest Russia.

So far in 2024, the U.S. is 5th warmest on record. Of the 48 contiguous states, 34 ranked MUCH ABOVE normal for the first 4 months of 2024. Northern New England and New York have encountered their 2nd warmest first 1/3 of the year on record. Michigan and Wisconsin are also the 2nd warmest on record for the 4-month period.

Issued on the 5th of each month is the ECMWF “monthlies” extending to 6 months. The projected upper air forecasts for June through September are indicated (Fig. 1-4). What we’re looking for are areas of semi-permanent high pressure which best identify areas where anomalous heat and dry climate persist leading to a potential drought. The obvious region exposed to this risk according to ECMWF is Central and Southwest Europe during August and September.

The Nino34 SSTA cooled to the El Nino threshold (+0.5C) last week while the entire Nino SSTA region averaged +0.5C, which is slightly warmer than much of April. Notably, the Nino12 SSTA off the northwest coast of South America warmed dramatically the past 2 weeks. Meanwhile, in the subsurface, the cooling necessary to cause an ENSO phase change from El Nino to La Nina continued. In April, the subsurface equatorial Pacific was cooler and firmly within the La Nina threshold.