A large marine heat wave (MHW) is developing off the East Asia coastline and is strengthening. Consequently, CFS V2 is forecasting a large high-pressure area to develop across the MHW during the summer season.

The Nino34 SSTA region has cooled a whopping 0.69C during the past 2 weeks as El Nino 2023-24 is about to end. The record warm global ocean surface of the past 12 months is unique and causes uncertainty regarding the speed of development and intensity of La Nina for later in 2024.

The Climate Impact Company summer 2024 outlook valid for May through September is issued. The forecast is based on a transition from an El Nino to La Nina climate, warming of already very warm mid-latitude oceans, optimum climate normal, and anticipated drought zones.

Today’s 15-day precipitation forecast is produced using the new AIFS (artificial intelligence forecast system) generated by ECMWF. This is the first precipitation forecast generated by artificial intelligence made available on an experimental basis every 6 hours and available through CWG/Storm Vista.