The 4-5-day forecast track toward the Yucatan Peninsula is reasonably confident. However, once Beryl moves across the Yucatan, “track clusters” have mixed opinions on Beryl. The most confident forecast is a potential north turn (41.7%) while the second-most likely track is a continued due west course (37.9%). The least likely track is across the northern Yucatan Peninsula and eventually toward Texas (20.4%).

Due to rapid drying of soils in the East U.S., NOAA/CPC issues a statement on the likelihood of rapidly developing drought in the East U.S. due to limited rainfall and the acceleration of soil moisture drying by anomalous heat. A similar scenario for the western states!

The first freeze risk to the far southern coffee-growing areas in Southeast Brazil receive their first freeze threat of winter on Sunday June 30th. GFS projects -1C to -3C in the extreme southern coffee areas. The 7-day outlook identifies the cold anomaly across Northeast Argentina/Southeast Brazil.

As stated on several occasions via soil moisture observations and trend and yesterday’s 2-5-week outlook, conditions for developing and expanding drought in the U.S. are favorable. NOAA/CPC identified specific regions in an alert issued late yesterday. They are eastern Oklahoma, the southern Missouri Valley, southern Ohio Valley to the western Tennessee Valley, and Mid-Atlantic region.