A cold air mass has extended into South Brazil this morning. ECMWF temperature anomalies indicate departures from normal of up to 20C below normal in some areas. Scattered reports of <0C are reported across parts of the Southern Brazil coffee growing areas.

The hottest July on record was observed in California. An upper-level ridge in-between a low-pressure area in the central Great Plains and south of Alaska enhanced by the influence of a marine heat wave shifting into the northeast Pacific were catalysts to the record heat.

The southern Great Plains remain at risk of flash drought through late August due to mostly dry and potentially very hot weather. The Southwest U.S. including Texas is also very hot and dry.

Climate diagnostics continue to indicate lack of a push toward La Nina. In July, the southern oscillation index was in a weak El Nino phase for the second consecutive month while subsurface upper ocean heat is only marginally cool. Using analogs, the ENSO forecast for the remainder of 2024 and possibly 2025 is neutral phase.