The Indian Ocean dipole is in the positive phase although forecast to shift neutral as mid-year approaches. Forecast models/analogs suggest that if ENSO trend is toward (or into) La Nina during Q3/2025 the risk of -IOD developing increases substantially.

Ongoing flooding in Oklahoma to Texas will intensify as another 7-10 inches of rain is possible over the next 1-2 days. River flooding, travel hazards, power outages, and crop damage increase. A second event is likely next week! The hardest hit area for flooding is Oklahoma likely to exceed the intensity of the Ohio/Mississippi River flooding event of early April.

Checking drought concern areas heading into May 2025 reveals dry-to-drought conditions across the Southwest U.S., parts of the Central U.S. plus the Mid-Atlantic States to Florida. Drought across Europe to Southwest Russia is expanding. Ongoing drought in Brazil continues while Northern Argentina drought has strengthened. Southeast China drought remains intense.

Alignment between NOAA/CPC probability forecasts and the constructed analog prepared by Climate Impact Company is in close agreement for precipitation patterns for meteorological summer 2025 into September 2025. Forecast confidence is above average on two high impact climate regimes which is a significant drought centered on Iowa (and vicinity) and land-falling tropical cyclone risk in the northeast Gulf of Mexico region. The evolution of each risk peaks in August and September.