NOAA amd research centers have confirmed FLASH DROUGHT in the Southeast U.S. during early autumn. The dryness is spreading rapidly into the southeast Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic region.

Last week the strongest +IOD on record was recorded. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology maintains an intense +IOD through quarter 4 of 2019. Historic drought conditions continue to worsen across much of Australia.

The exceptionally warm Great Lakes will cause a warm autumn temperature bias for surrounding areas but could initiate intense lake-effect snows once winter arrives.

The western U.S. Corn Belt was under the gun for a freeze risk based on forecasts from earlie rthis week. The forecast seemed reasonable given the upstream Montana snows producinga cold air source region. But as this week's operational forecasts indicated the primary influence on the Corn Belt was warmer ahead of the cold front and wetter due to the slower movement of the front and no freeze as the big chill lagged well to the west.