The D1, D2 drought areas in southwest/southeast Brazil look to receive some beneficial rainfall during the medium-range period agreed upon by both the GFS and ECM. The wetter trend for these areas which desperately need the rain is a forecast change (from drier outlook late last week).

Two potential tropical cyclones have emerged in the North Atlantic tropics. Tropical Disturbance 98L moves into Florida this weekend and may reorganize moving northeastward off the U.S. East Coast becoming a tropical storm Monday night or Tuesday. In the central North Atlantic tropics Tropical Disturbance 99L may become a tropical storm moving toward the Caribbean Sea early next week.

Neutral ENSO ahead BUT with a Modoki-like character for northern hemisphere autumn. Indian Ocean Dipole forecasts indicate an immensely intense positive phase.

Research has shown that when the far eastern equatorial Pacific is cool and near the Dateline in the tropics surface water is warm there is a tendency in the upper air pattern over the subtropical western North Atlantic for a low pressure trough to form. This phenomenon is known as the tropical upper troposphere trough (TUTT). The TUTT pattern produces upper level shear suppressing tropical activity.