A Northeast Corridor heat wave begins today. An Excessive Heat Watch is in effect for parts of southern New England valid through 8PM EDT Monday. Heat advisories are in effect for much of the remainder of New England south to the New York City area. Today’s hot weather is without high humidity. However, high dew points arrive tomorrow forcing widespread 105F heat index (or higher) which will last into Tuesday.

An ideal environment for intensification - low shear and very warm surface water - causes Hanna to become a hurricane slamming the south coast of Texas just south of Corpus Christi this afternoon.

Does another heat wave follow the current episode for next weekend? ECMWF says yes and forecasts a stronger event than currently taking place. The GFS is not nearly as hot. The question is whether the hot air source region in the Central U.S. pulses eastward (or not). GFS says no while ECM is (vigorously) yes! The precedent is set as last week’s Midwest heat wave has shifted into the East now. A second event is likely and given peak summer heat the next event could be hotter.

The Pacific tropical basin has observed no significant tropical cyclone activity since early June including no category-3 systems, the first time in the satellite measuring era (since 1966) according to the Australia Bureau of Meteorology. Using accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index the seasonal activity (so far) for the Pacific basin is 20% of normal.