Laura should easily reach category-3 hurricane intensity in the western half of the Gulf of Mexico midweek and possibly a category-4 hurricane prior to striking the northwest Gulf of Mexico coast early Thursday.

Tropical Storm Marco is a little stronger at 8AM EDT Saturday. However, a 30-40 knot southwest upper shear band is ahead across the central Gulf of Mexico. Marco will need to fight through that shear to survive. Tropical Storm Laura is forecast to track west-west-northwest across Hispaniola and Cuba over-the-weekend which is a tough course to follow to survive due to the high terrain. HOWEVER, if each storm survives these obstacles the super warm Gulf of Mexico could allow strengthening to a hurricane before eventual landfall in the north or northwest Gulf of Mexico.

The convective phase of the Madden Julian oscillation stretched across the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean and into the western Atlantic tropics (phase_8/phase_1) the past 7-10 days with moderate-to-strong intensity. The result is widespread tropical convection spawning many tropical events (4 in both the East Pacific and North Atlantic tropics including Elida, Fausto, Genevieve and Isaias plus several potent tropical disturbances). The latent heat release poleward of the tropical convection and the attendant tropical systems into the middle atmosphere of the middle latitudes amplified a high pressure ridge in the Western U.S. causing the California heat wave.

Occasionally, NOAA/CPC long-lead forecasts will produce relatively bold probabilities in extended-range forecasts. If so, risk managers interested in possible adverse climate conditions should take note. The NOAA/CPC outlook for meteorological summer (from last February) indicated an unusually wet probability (given the 3.5 to 6.5 lead time) across Virginia which has certainly verified given the historic rainfall observed in August.