Chart of the day: NOAA/NWS weather warning, watch and advisory areas for Christmas Eve.
Discussion: A busy weather map? A major Christmas Eve storm erupts in the East today/tonight bringing severe thunderstorms to the coastal Mid-Atlantic region, high wind causing poser outages for the northern Mid-Atlantic into New England and flash flooding caused by heavy rain from Virginia to Maine. Heavy snow on the back side of the storm targets West Virginia to Ohio. Wind advisories spread from Texas to the Southeast U.S. A hard freeze is expected just north of the core of the Florida citrus crop. Red Flag Warnings inspire high fire risk from Los Angeles to San Diego while a Winter Storm Warning is in effect for the northern California Mountains. Dangerous cold has spread across the Upper Midwest.
Medium-range 6-10 Day Forecast Valid December 29, 2020-January 2, 2021
Medium-range 11-15 Day Forecast Valid January 3-7, 2021
Discussion: Snow-driven cold across the Central Great Plains extends into the Southwest U.S. in the 6-10 day period while the East is temperate and Canada milder-than-normal. The 11-15 day forecast cool temperatures linger in the Southwest U.S. while most of the U.S. is temperate and Canada stays mild.
Extended-range 16-20 Day Forecast Valid January 8-12, 2021
Discussion: A colder trend in the Southwest, Interior West and into Texas. The Canadian warm bias is across eastern sections.
Snowy Next Week Central U.S.
Discussion: The mega-cluster day 6-10 forecast indicates heavy precipitation across the Central U.S. and much of it is (10-20 in.) snowfall!
U.S. Gas Population Weight HDD Forecast
Discussion: Models are warmer through Jan. 1-7 including a ferociously warm GFS forecast for early January. There remains a stratospheric warming episode in the polar region for early January but the attendant arctic air risk is in Russia and many times the opposite side of the planet can be quite mild in that circumstance.