The preliminary 2021 North Atlantic tropical cyclone season forecast is attached. The outlook is more active than normal featuring 16 tropical storms, 9 hurricanes and 3 intense hurricanes with an ACE index of 122. The climate conditions feature neutral ENSO and a North Atlantic tropical/subtropical basin not quite as warm as last year.

Not surprisingly the GFS Operational model finishes last in skill scores for forecast 2-meter temperatures in the 6-10 and 11-15 day period across North America. The European Ensemble edges out the American Ensemble for best scores. data provided by CWG/Storm Vista WX Models.

For the first time since November the Madden Julian oscillation is activated and intensifying in the equatorial Pacific Ocean into early February. The result is increased risk of excessive precipitation in the East-central U.S. and a mild climate pattern east of the Continental Divide as the final month of meteorological winter arrives.

Beginning midweek the northern hemisphere jet stream will trough on the U.S. West Coast and re-strengthen in western Europe. In-between the two vigorous trough patterns a third trough resides south of Greenland. By late January the pattern still remains although with slightly less amplitude. These features shape the last third of January 2021 climate for the northern hemisphere.