Reviewing the 1993-2024 monthly IOD index, positive phase spikes are usually followed by the negative phase. A sharp +IOD was observed in 2023 fading earlier this year. Anticipated (earlier this year) was generation of a new negative phase. However, monthly observations during 2024 reveal a steady neutral phase.

An eastward shift of the convection phase of the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) is forecast by all operational models. The MJO was semi-permanent in the tropical Indian Ocean to Maritime Continent since early August. The eastern shift is across the tropical East Pacific and Atlantic to West Africa through the next 2-3 weeks activating tropical cyclone activity in each ocean basin.

AIFS indicates potential for a developing tropical cyclone late in the 1-5-day period in the west-central Caribbean Sea. In the 6-10-day period, there is the likelihood of a hurricane developing in the Gulf of Mexico. The hurricane is likely to turn northeastward into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and the Southeast U.S. early in the 11-15-day period.