Intense heat featuring widespread risk of >100F is indicated for the southern ½ to 2/3 of the U.S. into early August. The hardest hit is the Dallas to Kansas City to Atlanta triangle. The entire area is dry enhancing the heat. There is general agreement with other models (GFS ENS and AI) except for CFS V2 which is farther west with the upper ridge.

The persistent high-pressure area over Europe producing hot and dry weather during meteorological summer so far is associated with the North Atlantic SSTA pattern featuring a vivid North Atlantic warm hole (NAWH) south of Greenland and marine heat waves (MHW) west of Europe and across the Mediterranean Sea. As mid-summer arrives, persistence begins to shift causing a pattern change for Europe for the second half of July.

Many hazards are affecting the U.S. this afternoon. Once again, the recent historic flooding event in Central Texas is once again struck by heavy rains and a Flash Flood Warning is in effect. Flood Watch areas are in effect from Southwest Texas to eastern Oklahoma, eastern New Mexico, and the Interior Mid-Atlantic.

A broad and steadily strengthening upper trough south of Australia gradually extends a vigorous storm track northward into southern continent followed by chilly air generation leading to <32F risk in Southeast Australia and parts of southwest continent.