The upper ocean heat pattern across the equatorial Pacific tells the story as a recent Kelvin Wave weakened La Nina. The Kelvin Wave influence is fading and resurgent cool waters in the eastern equatorial Pacific has regenerated and La Nina is now better-organized. We await the next Kelvin Wave as to whether La Nina fades (or not).

An unusually chilly air mass in that region is expected to develop and widen in the 6-10-day period according to GFS. The chill is strongest over Ukraine and just to the north in Western Russia. At that time minimum temperature risk dipping to <32F/0C is evident with several areas to 28F/-3C. In the 11-15-day period, GFS pushes the cold pattern westward across Europe. At that time there is a 30-40% risk of <32F/0C through Central Europe.

The persistent upper-level low-pressure trough across East Australia so far in 2022 coupled with increased low atmospheric moisture caused by the warmer than normal oceans either side of Australia continue to fuel an excessive wet weather regime across East Australia.

The Climate Impact Company early April North Atlantic Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Forecast for 2022 indicates 19 tropical storms, 9 hurricanes and 4 intense hurricanes are expected. The forecast ranks in the top 10 most active seasons given the 1950-2021 climatology. The accumulative cyclone energy (ACE) index forecast is 135 which ranks the intensity forecast of the 2022 season at 20th most intense given the 1950-2021 climatology.