Based on ECMWF, Europe has a drought problem for upcoming summer. Dry-to-drought soil conditions are already developing. ECMWF shifts an amplified upper ridge over Western Europe into mid-July eastward to Central/East Europe for late July into August. In the U.S., the upper ridge is suppressed by an emerging eastern North America upper trough the next 2 weeks. However, the Central/Midwest U.S. ridge re-emerges in August.

A high-pressure ridge is forecast to take hold of the Europe climate pattern later in July and promote dry and hot climate to worsen already established dry soils. Expanding drought is in the forecast for Europe during mid-summer!

U.S. drought concerns are increasing. The dry month of June combined with a lot of heat has caused Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) to trend drier. Consequently, the rainfall needed to neutralize that dry soil moisture signature has increased DRAMATICALLY in late June. Off the chart (>15 in.) values appear in the NOAA/CPC analysis in Washington, California, Texas, Georgia and North Carolina.

The dramatic difference between warm SSTA in the East Indian/West Pacific Ocean(s) and the cooler regime in the Central/East Pacific Ocean renders a La Nina-like atmospheric climate pattern unlikely to change.