Cold Risks to Midwest and Northwest Great Plains
04/19/2026, 9:48 am EDT
Climate Impact Company ENSO Climate Diagnostics
Issued: Monday April 20, 2026
Highlight: Nino SSTA regions surpass the El Nino threshold. Record strength El Nino is possible late this year as supported by immense upper ocean heat.
Fig. 1: The weekly SSTA observed in the Nino regions for the past 12 weeks.
Discussion: The Nino SSTA regions have each passed the El Nino threshold (Fig. 1). A NOAA announcement of El Nino onset should occur during May. The subsurface equatorial East Pacific anomalous warmth is immense, and the attendant Kelvin Wave continues to intensify (Fig. 2). The subsurface warmth in April is rivaled only by APR-97 (Fig. 3) prior to the second strongest El Nino on record. Dynamic models continue to indicate a strong warm Nino34 SSTA signature for later this year (Fig. 4). The question is not whether strong El Nino occurs, but rather is El Nino 2026 the strongest on record?
Fig. 2: The subsurface equatorial East Pacific ROBUST warm signature continues to strengthen.
Fig. 3: The upper ocean heat observed during April 1997 ahead of the intense 1997098 El Nino event appears not quite as strong as the current warming.
Fig. 4: The Nino34 SSTA forecast utilizing many dynamic models is agreeable to a potential record strength El Nino later this year.