Immense Subsurface Kelvin Wave East of Dateline Promises Intense El Nino Ahead in 2026

Climate Impact Company ENSO Climate Diagnostics

Issued: Monday April 13, 2026

Highlight: Neutral ENSO continues; Immense subsurface heat implies possible record strength El Nino later this year.

Fig. 1: The weekly SSTA observed in the Nino regions for the past 12 weeks.

Discussion: Neutral ENSO continues during early April as the Nino34 SSTA is unchanged at +0.2C (Fig. 1). Last week, some warming was observed off the northwest coast of South America (Nino12). The subsurface upper ocean heat is MUCH warmer than normal and intensifying (Fig. 2). The NEW Kelvin Wave features ocean temperatures 6-7C warmer than normal extending to just east of 150W and further eastward shifting is likely. The upper ocean heat in the equatorial East Pacific is accelerating (Fig. 3). The latest collection of Nino34 SSTA forecasts are agreeable to a strong EL Nino episode mid-to-late 2026, possibly record strength (Fig. 4).

Fig. 2: A strengthening eastward shifting Kelvin Wave in the eastern equatorial Pacific subsurface.

Fig. 3: Upper ocean heat is accelerating in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.

Fig. 4: The Nino34 SSTA forecast utilizing many dynamic models is agreeable to a potential record strength El Nino later this year.