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Climate Impact Company Week 2-to-4 South America Outlook
Issued: Tuesday April 14, 2026
Headline: Brazil shifts drier; Hot Southeast Brazil.
Chart of the day: The 10-day rainfall outlook.
Discussion: MJO forcing propels heavy rain across Northern Argentina, Paraguay, and Northeast Brazil during the next 7-10 days. East Brazil dryness is exceptional as drought in this region worsens.
Week-2 Valid April 26-May 3, 2026: A drier shift.
Discussion: Tropical forcing from MJO ends and the South America climate shifts somewhat drier. The dry and drought zone in Southeast Brazil is susceptible to late season anomalous heat.
Week-3 Valid May 3-10, 2026: Hotter/drier Brazil.
Discussion: Dryness and anomalous heat across Southwest to East Brazil is impressive as drought continues to worsen.
Week-4 Valid May 10-17, 2026: More heat Southeast Brazil.
Discussion: ECMWF projects anomalous heat across dry soil region in the week-4 outlook. A mostly drier than normal outlook.