Northern U.S. Drought Expansion/Southern U.S. Drought Erosion (NOAA Outlook) Unfolds in Week 2-4 Forecast

Climate Impact Company Updates The U.S. Summer 2026 Outlook
05/20/2026, 4:00 pm EDT
Climate Impact Company Updates The U.S. Summer 2026 Outlook
05/20/2026, 4:00 pm EDT
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Climate Impact Company Week 2-4 Outlook

North America

Issued: Friday, May 22, 2026

Highlight: Warm-to-hot risk increases across Northern States. Northwest to North-central U.S. drought expansion initiated. South is steadily wet.

Chart of the day: Drought development/erosion areas for summertime.

Discussion: The NOAA/CPC Seasonal Drought Outlook indicates erosion of much of the Southern U.S. drought while Northern drought expands.

Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid May 31-June 7, 2026: Dry and warm North; Wet South.

Discussion: Widespread rain across the Gulf States begins a drought erosion process. Meanwhile, anomalous warmth and dryness initiates drought expansion North-central U.S.

Week-3 Ahead Forecast valid June 7-14, 2026: Rainy South continues.

Discussion: Wet weather persists across the southeast quadrant of the U.S. with widening anomalous warmth across the North.

Week-4 Ahead Forecast valid June 14-21, 2026: Northwest and Northeast heat.

Discussion: Northwest and northeast quadrant of the U.S. are very warm to hot while wet weather continues to dominate South.