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Climate Impact Company Week 2-4 Outlook
North America
Issued: Thursday October 8, 2026
Highlight: ECM “weeklies” not warm enough Northwest and Southeast; Southern U.S. storm track to evolve.
Table of the day: Developing polar vortex.
Climate signals discussion: Standout climate signals for during and just beyond mid-month include the arctic oscillation which is moderate-to-strong positive and represents evolution of the polar vortex.
Week-2 Ahead (October 18-25, 2026): ECM “weeklies” are warmer than shown. Coastal California heat.
Discussion: ECM “weeklies” is utilized but with warmer annotations Northwest and Southeast. Santa Ana warm weather event is forecast for California. Mexico and possibly Southern California receive El Nino-inspired rainfall. The Northern States are dry.
Week-3 Ahead (October 25-November 1, 2026): Widening South U.S. rainfall.
Discussion: The El Nino rains are broader across the Southern States. The Northwest and Southeast are warmer than indicated by ECM. Coastal California heat is possible.
Week-4 Ahead (November 1-8, 2026): Mild across Northern States; Still wet South.
Discussion: Expect marginal warming across the Northern U.S., more so than indicated by ECM. The Southern U.S. stays wet.