Climate Research: Super El Nino increasingly likely. Where are the first (climate) targets?
05/12/2026, 1:49 pm EDT
So Far in May, Midwest U.S. Soils are Drier. Wet Weather to Return!
05/15/2026, 9:24 am EDT
Climate Impact Company Week 2-to-4 South America Outlook
Issued: Wednesday May 13, 2026
Headline: Turning wetter in Brazil later May/early June.
Charts of the day: El Nino onset and South America climate.
Discussion: El Nino 2026 is here! The daily Nino34 SSTA rockets to +1.18C and the monthly change is nearly 1C. Rapid intensification to Super El Nino is expected for the 3rd quarter of 2026. Regarding the cool season precipitation climate across South America during Super El Nino, the 2015, 1997, and 1982 episodes combine to produce a wet climate across Southeast Brazil and Paraguay while Northwest Brazil is very dry. The most recent Super El Nino (2015) produced a slightly wetter Southeast Brazil climate pattern.
Week-2 Valid May 24-31, 2026: May (Argentina) cool period abates.
Discussion: Central Brazil stays dry with showery weather on the Southeast Brazil Coast. ECM projects the recent chilly pattern in Argentina to abate.
Week-3 Valid May 31-June 7, 2026: Wetter Brazil.
Discussion: Upper trough is forecast off the Southeast Brazil Coast which brings a wet pattern change to Central/East-central Brazil.
Week-4 Valid June 7-14, 2026: More rain for Brazil.
Discussion: More wet weather is expected in Brazil although temperatures stay on the warm side.