Late Season System Trying to Organize Well East of Bahamas

Climate Impact Company North Atlantic Basin 10-Day Monitor

Issued: Wednesday November 4, 2026

Highlight: Late season system trying to organize well east of Bahamas.

Table 1: The North Atlantic basin tropical cyclone season activity so far in 2026.

Fig. 1: Weather satellite view of the North Atlantic basin.

Discussion: The North Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity for the 2026 season remains well below normal, most clearly identified by the accumulated cyclone energy index of 19.5 (Table 1). The lowest recent seasonal ACE index was 36 in 2013 preceded by several years in the 30’s in 1991, 1993, and 1994. The Super El Nino of 1983 produced an ACE index of 17.

Several upper-level shear streaks are present across the North Atlantic basin (Fig. 1). The upper shear will increase. However, a late season subtropical low-pressure area well east of the Bahamas has a 40% chance of becoming a subtropical storm staying just south of an upper shear axis and located over a marine heatwave in the North Atlantic subtropics (Fig. 2).

Fig. 2: The North Atlantic basin sea surface temperature anomaly analysis for Nov. 2, 2026.