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Fig. 1-3: Three of four snowstorms forecast by GFS over the next 12 days.

Discussion: The 12Z GFS piles snow via 4 storms (three are pictured) across the Northeast, Midwest, and South-central U.S. (Fig. 1-3). The snow in the East should encourage colder weather. Consequently, the warmer East U.S. midday 12Z GFS may be too warm (Fig. 4-5). The West is cold in the 6-10-day period followed by arctic air in the 11-15-day period into the Northwest States.

Fig. 4-5: The 12Z GFS temperature anomaly forecast for the medium range.

DatesHDD Forecast12-Hr Change24-Hr Change30-Year NML10-Year NML
Dec. 29-Jan. 4

 

182.5+0.2+0.4205.6200.7
Jan. 5-11

 

 

193.6-1.8-7.6209.4205.3
Jan. 12-18

 

219.7-26.0+13.9211.9207.5

Table 1: The 12Z GFS U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast compared to 12 and 24 hours ago.