Preliminary Comparison Between JAN-24 Cold Event With “Uri”

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Fig. 1-2: The “Uri” cold peak U.S. temperature anomaly analysis centered on Feb. 12-18, 2021, compared to the projected peak cold for Jan. 11-17, 2024.

Discussion: The extreme cold of the “Uri” arctic outbreak centered on Feb. 12-18, 2021 (Fig. 1), yielded 272 U.S. gas population weight HDD which was about 80 HDD colder than the 30-year normal and 84 HDD colder than the 10-year normal. The consensus forecast for the peak cold period ahead centered on the 8-14-day projection and valid for January 11-17, 2024, is provided by the GFS Ensemble (Fig. 2). The preliminary estimate of U.S. gas population weight HDD is in the 234-244 range compared to the 212 HDD 30-year normal and 208 HDD 10-year normal. The cold period occurs just before the climatological coldest part of winter. Of course, “Uri” occurred over 3 weeks after climatological cold peak. “Uri” was colder than the expected JAN-24 event in the Central U.S. and particularly Texas. The JAN-24 event is also warmer in the Northeast than with the “Uri” event. The January 11-17, 2024, projection remains preliminary.