Stratospheric Warming on The East Coast in Late March

Stratospheric Warming on The East Coast in Late March

Fig. 1: NOAA/CPC indicates a robust warming stratosphere on the U.S. East Coast in late March.

Discussion: NOAA/CPC is indicating a fairly robust stratospheric warming event centered on the U.S. East Coast at the end of March (Fig. 1). Although not in the ideal polar location, the event would be enough to cause the troposphere below to cool. Operational models are generally warm for late March. However, the caveat forecast offered by the mega-cluster ensemble indicates potential for a stormy Northeast U.S. trough (Fig. 2). Late March could be stormy, chilly and windy for the Northeast Corridor and a lot more turbulent than indicated by operational models.

Fig. 2: Caveat forecast by the mega-cluster ensemble in 15 days indicates a stormy trough in the Northeast U.S. likely in response to the warming stratosphere above.