Central/Northern Brazil Drought Concerns; Most Major Crop Areas Not Affected
10/16/2026, 4:46 am EDT
Climate Impact Company North America Medium Range Report
Issued: Monday October 19, 2026
Highlight: Getting fancy with U.S. medium-range forecasts, recognizing the most likely outlook and the caveat forecast.
Chart of the day: North America medium range temperature verification.
Discussion: The 30-day skill scores of North America 2-meter temperature forecasts valid during the medium range identify AI models as having a clear slight edge over operational models. The models evaluated are the most heavily considered by Climate Impact Company and include Weather Next V3 (scores for days 6-10 only), AIFS ENS, and ECM ENS (most) frequently used for (CIC) Medium-range outlooks. Also considered are models, which CIC views as recognizing pattern change first, GFS and AIFS. The GFS and CMC ensembles are added. AIFS ENS and ECM ENS remain most reliable (apparently) beginning to trail Weather Next V3 based on the most recent observations.
Medium-range 6-10 Day Forecast Valid October 24-28, 2026 (ECM ENS outlook, AIFS caveat)
Discussion: The outlook is warm in the Central U.S. with cooler than normal temperature on each coast. The “caveat” forecast is cooler on the East Coast provided by above normal snow cover persisting in Eastern Quebec.
Medium-range 11-15 Day Forecast Valid October 29-November 2, 2026 (ECM ENS outlook, GFS caveat)
Discussion: The outlook remains warmer than normal with advancing warmth into the East. The caveat forecast is a LOW RISK chill in the East possibly supported by lingering snow cover in Eastern Quebec on the coastal upper air pattern.
U.S. Medium-range Precipitation Forecast
Discussion: NBM projects a dry pattern across the eastern half of the U.S. although the East Coast observes nearby coastal storminess in the 6-10-day period. In the 11-15-day forecast, ECM ENS advances East Pacific moisture across the Southwest and into the Great Plains.
Days 16-20 Extended range Temperature Forecast valid-November 3-7, 2026
Discussion: The most likely scenario is Pacific moisture pushing storminess across the Southwest to the Southeast U.S., possibly as “atmospheric rivers” while the warm bias pushes into the East.