Central/Northern Brazil Drought Concerns; Most Major Crop Areas Not Affected

Climate Impact Company Week 2-4 Outlook

South America

Issued: Friday October 16, 2026

Highlight: Central/Northern Brazil drought concerns; Most major crop areas not affected.

Charts of the day: Recent rain, soil moisture, and 10-day outlook.

Discussion: During the past 7 days, heavy rain was centered on Paraguay and much of Argentina. Southeast Brazil was (also) wet. Central and East Brazil have been dry. Daily soil moisture analysis reveals the effectiveness of the Southern Brazil and Argentina rains as soil moisture shifts wetter. The 10-day outlook stays dry in Central Brazil while a drier shift is evident in Northeast Argentina while wet weather in Southeast Brazil expands northward.

Week-2 Ahead (October 25-November 1, 2026): Southeast Brazil rains expand northwestward.

Discussion: The wet pattern in Southeast Brazil expands westward toward Central Brazil while North/Northeast Argentina are drier. Argentina remains cooler than normal while dryness promotes excessive heat in Northern Brazil.

Week-3 Ahead (November 1-8, 2026): Southeast Brazil rain; Dry/hot North.

Discussion: The wet Southeast Brazil/dry Central and North Brazil persistence is forecast for early November. The dry zone is hotter than normal, conditions to advance drought. Argentina is mixed drier than normal northern areas while Central Argentina and Chile are cool and wet.

Week-4 Ahead (November 8-15, 2026): Persistence! Drought steadily worsening Northern Brazil.

Discussion: Northern Brazil steadily worsens drought conditions while Southeast Brazil and Central Argentina are wet targets.