Europe Chill Arrives and Strengthens. Questions On Duration.

Climate Impact Company AG Hot Spot

Issued: Tuesday December 30, 2025, Happy New Year!

Highlight: Europe chill arrives, strengthens. Questions on duration.

Fig. 1: Utilizing all models, the 15-day Europe population-weight daily temperature average forecast for the next 15 days.

Discussion: In a (climate forecast) surprise, the temperature regime across Europe to close 2025 and begin 2026 is cold! The latest 15-day Europe population-weight daily average temperature forecast projects cold weather this week followed by a cold peak early next week with moderation (cautiously) forecast for the extended range (Fig. 1). The ECM ENS 15-day temperature anomaly forecast identifies the cold pattern extending across all Western Eurasia (Fig. 2). Helping to enhance the cold is gradual snow cover/snow depth increase peaking in 10 days (Fig. 3). Consequently, any moderation in the extended range is likely over West Coastal Europe only, due to lack of snow cover. Interestingly, ECM indicates a regionalized stratospheric warming event in the 11-15-day period extending from Europe to Russia (Fig. 4). ECM is strongest with this feature. If the stratospheric warming forecast is correct, the cold pattern will continue and not moderate as implied by other models.

Fig. 2-4: The ECM ENS 15-day temperature anomaly forecast across Europe, the GFS day-10 snow depth outlook, and ECM 11-15-day stratospheric temperature anomaly prediction.