Regional Stratospheric Warming Expands Westward to North America East Coast Late January; Causes East U.S. Chill
01/15/2026, 9:04 am EST
East Pacific Surface Warms Slightly; Subsurface Warming Eases Back Slightly
01/20/2026, 12:54 pm EST
Climate Impact Company Week 2-4 Outlook
North America
Issued: Friday, January 16, 2026
Highlight: Western warmth, week-3 East forecast is too warm, chilly to normally cold week-4.
Chart of the day: “Weeklies” verification.
Discussion: The “weeklies” skill scores from the past 30, 14, and 7 days predicting 2-meter temperature forecasts for North America is horrible. The exception is, surprisingly, GFS ENS with traditional ECM “weeklies” a distant second.
Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid January 25-February 1, 2026: Cold/snowy into the Northeast.
Discussion: GFS ENS lingers the cold late month, not as strongly as operational models, but colder than other “weeklies” models. The Northeast is snowy finishing January.
Week-3 Ahead Forecast valid February 1-8, 2026: Models are too warm in the East.
Discussion: “Weeklies” are (all) warmer than normal for most of the U.S. during early February. The upper air pattern is not supportive of eastern warmth.
Week-4 Ahead Forecast valid February 8-15, 2026: Back to normally cold.
Discussion: Shifting colder again as the middle 1/3 of February arrives. Northern U.S. snowfall is expected while Texas/Louisiana are rainy.