Subsurface Equatorial Pacific Continues to Warm Impressively

Climate Impact Company U.S. Medium Range Report

Issued: Thursday April 2, 2026; No forecasts issued on Good Friday

Highlight: Central U.S. shifts warmer days 6-10, cooler days 11-15.

Chart of the day: Upper ocean heat equatorial Pacific increasing.

Discussion: The March upper ocean heat content in the equatorial Pacific Ocean continues to warm, the warmest since June 2023 during the last El Nino episode. The level of warmth rivals the approaching 2015 El Nino but is well short of the immense 1997 El Nino.

Medium-range 6-10 Day Forecast Valid April 7-11, 2026 (AIFS ENS and 24-hour change)

Discussion: Western warmth extends eastward to the Midwest where warmer 24-hour changes are significant. The East stays near normal. Cold weather can briefly extend to New England.

Medium-range 11-15 Day Forecast Valid April 12-16, 2026 (AIFS ENS and 24-hour change)

Discussion: The North-central U.S. shifts cooler and coupled with wet weather splits the warm anomaly lingering in the West and emerging on the East Coast.

U.S. Medium-range Precipitation Forecast

Discussion: The Texas to Great Lakes stretch remains wetter than normal during the medium range. Heavy rain is likely in Florida in the 6-10-day period shifting drier after day-10. Most of the West and western Great Plains averages drier than normal.

Days 16-20 Extended range Temperature Forecast valid April 17-21, 2026

Discussion: Broad warmth stretches across the U.S. while Canada is very cold. The Canadian chill can “sneak” into the Northern U.S. Wet weather emerges in the Southwest and Midwest U.S.