ECMWF Month 1-4 Ahead Wind Probability Forecast for U.S. and Europe
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93L Could Become Major Hurricane in 4-5 Days; 94L Could Reach Carolinas Early Next Week
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Climate Impact Company U.S. Winter 2025-26 Gas Population Weight HDD Outlook
Issued: Thursday September 18, 2025
Headline: Official NOV-25 to MAR-26 forecast released.
Fig. 1: The U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast for the 2025-26 heating season.
Discussion: The Climate Impact Company gas population weight HDD forecast for the 2025-26 heating season is updated and official (Fig. 1). The new forecast is based on the just-issued U.S. month 1-6 climate forecast valid through next March. The adjusted outlook features 5 analogs for each month of the heating season helping to visually identify forecast confidence. The November outlook is colder than the 10-year-normal. Note that all but 1 analog is colder than the 10-year-normal rending above average forecast confidence for the anticipated November chill. The December forecast is close to the (mild) 10-year-normal. 4 of the 5 December analogs are agreeable and render the warm-up in December (after a chilly November) with above normal forecast confidence. The January forecast is mild but generated with low confidence. Analog years range from very warm to very cold. The cold February forecast is reasonably confident based on 3 of the analog years featuring very cold climate. The March forecast is slightly colder than the 10-year-normal. The NOV-25 to MAR-26 cold season forecast ranks coldest since 2017-18