ECMWF Month 1-4 Ahead Wind Probability Forecast for U.S. and Europe

Climate Impact Company U.S. & Europe Month 1-4 Ahead

ECM Wind Speed Probability Forecast

Issued: Tuesday September 16, 2025

Highlight: Probabilistic forecasts doubt high wind regimes for the U.S. and Europe. Higher wind risk is in the northern latitudes.

Executive summary: According to Reuters, below normal wind farm output seen so far this year in Europe could trigger a steep rise in gas use by UK power firms heading into winter, with tighter gas supplies and higher gas prices a likely outcome. Let’s take look at the ECMWF wind speed probability forecasts for OCT-25 through JAN-26 for both the U.S. and Europe. New winter 2025-26 temperature and precipitation forecasts for the U.S. and Europe are issued soon.

October 2025: Above normal wind speed probabilities are moderately intense across the Northwest U.S. and possibly the Gulf of Mexico due to a late season tropical cyclone risk (Fig. 1). The Great Plains and Northeast Corridor are forecast below normal wind speeds. In Europe, probability forecasts are weak in October. Marginal above normal risk is indicated in the Baltic Region with strongest below normal risk either side of Caspian Sea (Fig. 2).

Fig. 1-2: ECMWF 10-meter wind probability forecast for the U.S. and Europe valid in October 2025.

November 2025: Characteristic of the November outlook is above normal wind risk across Canada and Northern Europe while farther south, across the Southern U.S. and much of central and southwest portions of Europe wind seep probabilities are moderately lighter than normal (Fig. 3-4).

Fig. 3-4: ECMWF 10-meter wind probability forecast for the U.S. and Europe valid in November 2025.

December 2025: The late autumn pattern, windy North/less windy South, holds during early winter. Moderate to strong below normal wind speed probabilities are indicated across the Southern U.S. extending to the Great Plains (Fig. 5). Wind speeds are somewhat lighter than normal across Southwest Europe (Fig. 6). The U.K. has an equal chance of above, below, or normal wind speeds in December. The Northern Europe and Canada above normal wind speed risk is weaker than November.

Fig. 5-6: ECMWF 10-meter wind probability forecast for the U.S. and Europe valid in December 2025.

January 2026: Mid-winter brings marginal stronger than normal wind speeds to the Northwest U.S., Great Lakes region to Southern Quebec, and the Baltic Region in Europe (Fig. 7-8). The lighter than normal wind speed probability forecasts across the southern tier of the U.S. and Europe is less confident.

Fig. 7-8: ECMWF 10-meter wind probability forecast for the U.S. and Europe valid in January 2026.