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Fig. 1: NOAA/NWS weather watch, warning and advisory areas.

Winter Storm Watch for Mid-Atlantic/New England coast: A Winter Storm Watch has been posted for the coastal Mid-Atlantic States to southern New England (Fig. 1). The latest snowfall forecast for the FRI/SAT storm indicates heavy amounts on the Mid-Atlantic Coast from Virginia to Southeast Maryland (Fig. 2). A general inch or 2 covers Virginia away from the coast northward to Washington DC and Baltimore. A moderate snowstorm is indicated for the southern Appalachians. The forecast is based on the ECM. The GFS is farther offshore with less snowfall. The outlook for New England by ECM indicates blizzard conditions are likely for southeast New England from Boston to Providence and eastward. High wind accompanies a 10-20 in. snowfall (Fig. 3). Blowing and drifting of snow reducing visibility to near zero on Saturday occurs with this forecast. Coastal flooding due to wind gusts to 60 mph over an astronomical high tide lead to significant coastal flooding and erosion. Once again, the ECM forecast is closer to the coast with this storm. The GFS is farther offshore with greatly reduced snowfall.

Fig. 2-3: ECM 24-hour snowfall forecasts for the Mid-Atlantic (FRI/FRI night) and New England (SAT/SAT Night).