Northeast/Mid-Atlantic Weekend Snowstorm!

Why the Frigid 11-15-day Forecast Won’t Happen
01/25/2022, 7:46 pm EST
Winter Storm Watch Posted for the Mid-Atlantic/New England Coast!
01/27/2022, 5:32 am EST
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Fig. 1: NOAA/NWS weekend snowstorm risks.

Discussion: NOAA/NWS projects significant snow along the Northeast Corridor Coast FRI/FRI night and New England/northern Mid-Atlantic region SAT/SAT night (Fig. 1). Forecast confidence is HIGH that this storm will occur. Coastal impacts are immense, especially in New England given the astronomical high tide. Coastal wind gusts to 60-70 mph are expected driving ocean water to 2-3 feet above normal in eastern Massachusetts. Major coastal flooding is expected with this storm. Wind gusts >50 mph extend well inland in New England. Gusts to >50 mph are likely along the Mid-Atlantic Coast. Strong wind will also cause blowing and drifting snow that reduces visibility to zero during the storm and extremely high drifts away from the coast where rain-to-snow precipitation ratio is >10:1. The storm will produce widespread delays and eventually cancellations of travel and events in the affected areas for the weekend.

The ECM (model) indicates potential for a significant snow, sleet and ice storm extending from Texas to the Great Lakes next week. The storm would produce significant sleet/ice in Texas/southern Great Plains before a change to snow with heavy snows to the northeast from Missouri to Michigan (Fig. 2). More cold air follows the storm including a colder forecast change in Texas.

Fig. 2: ECM identifies a significant snowstorm in the Central U.S. next week.

There remains a significant battle between GFS and ECM/CMC forecast models on whether Feb. 4-10 is very cold (GFS) or moderately cold (ECM/CMC). The trend for that week is certainly colder (Fig. 3).

Fig. 3: U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast using all models, their consensus, comparison with 24 hours ago and the 30-year/10-year normal.