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Climate Impact Company Week 2-to-4 South America Outlook
Issued: Wednesday January 21, 2026
Headline: MJO shift favors wetter Brazil pattern ahead.
Charts of the day: Soil moisture, recent rainfall.
Discussion: Wet soil conditions are observed across Northern Argentina with near normal conditions west of Uruguay. Most of Brazil maintains drier than normal soil moisture conditions. Last week, the observed rainfall pattern enhanced ongoing soil conditions.
Week-2 Valid February 1-8, 2026: Eastern Brazil is wet.
Discussion: Upper trough is projected across Argentina inspiring wet weather in Brazil and Chile. Northern Argentina is a dry zone.
Week-3 Valid February 8-15, 2026: Wet southern half of Brazil.
Discussion: Upper trough cuts off over Paraguay and causes heavy thunderstorms across primary crop areas of Brazil. Northeast Argentina is dry and hot.
Week-4 Valid February 15-22, 2026: Wet bias (marginally) favors Brazil.
Discussion: The wet bias is across Brazil while Argentina is a drier than normal zone.