Ocean and Soil Moisture Climate Guides for Early Summer in the U.S.
05/28/2026, 9:47 am EDT
Climate Impact Company North Atlantic Basin 10-Day Monitor
Issued: Monday June 1, 2026
Highlight: Tropical cyclone season begins!
| Tropical Storms | Hurricanes | Intense Hurricanes | ACE Index | |
| CIC* | 13 | 5 | 3 | 98 |
| NOAA | 8-14 | 3-6 | 1-3 | 80% Normal |
| CSU* | 13 | 6 | 2 | 90 |
| TSR/UK* | 12 | 5 | 1 | 68 |
| Normal | 15.7 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 131.6 |
Table 1: Seasonal forecasts of North Atlantic tropical cyclone season activity from leading providers for 2026. *Early June updates ahead.
Fig. 1: The morning North Atlantic basin weather satellite view.
Discussion: The North Atlantic tropical cyclone season is underway today. Forecasters agree that due to El Nino, below normal activity is expected this season (Table 1). Currently, upper shear dominates the subtropical/tropical basin preventing any early season features from organizing. Strong trade winds are pushing Africa dust across the tropics reaching the Caribbean Islands. The Gulf of Mexico is showery/thundery through the next 10 days but no organized events are forecast.