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Climate Impact Company Week 2-4 Outlook
Europe/Western Russia
Issued: Sunday, June 8, 2025
Highlight: Western Russia is wet/cool, West/Southwest Europe very warm and dry.
Charts of the day: Southern Europe dryness/heat last week and this week.
Discussion: The Europe 7-day percent of normal rainfall valid for May 31-June 6 identify the NEW pattern emerging featuring widespread dryness across Southern Europe with the wet belt stretched from the Northern British Isles to Poland and the Baltic region. The pattern described is sustained in the 7-day outlook according to AI Graph Cast. The dry zone is hot and drought expansion is generated.
Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid June 15-21, 2025: Cooler/wetter Russia; West/Southwest Europe warmth and dryness.
Discussion: The reliable week-2 ahead ECM ENS forecast reveals emerging wet weather in South-central Europe while widening in Russia. The hot weather shifts to Southwest Europe while Russia, including the Black Sea region cools.
Week-3 Ahead Forecast valid June 22-28, 2025: Black Sea most dry/temperate; Western Europe dry/warm.
Discussion: The upper trough in Western Russia, well forecast by the climate constructed analog, remains in place with attendant wet and cool weather. Very warm to hot and dry weather across Western Europe is strongest in France.
Week-4 Ahead Forecast valid June 29-July 5, 2025: Hot/dry risk expands.
Discussion: The Europe warm to hot and dry pattern expands across Europe to include the Black Sea region. Northern Europe is temperate and showery.