Freeze Risk Southern Brazil Days 11-15 On The Table

Climate Impact Company AG Hot Spot

Issued: Tuesday June 10, 2025

Highlight: Freeze risk to Southern Brazil days 11-15 on the table.

Fig. 1-2: The 00Z ECM and GFS 11-15-day temperature anomaly forecast for South America.

Fig. 3-4: The 06Z GFS 11-15-day temperature anomaly forecast for South America and the GFS ENS risk of <32F outlook for that timeframe.

Discussion: Cool weather extends to Southeast Brazil but not sufficiently chilly for a (Brazil) coffee freeze. ECM has introduced a chilly burst across Argentina extending to Southern Brazil in the 11-15-day period (Fig. 1). However, the GFS was completely disagreeable rendering a much warmer solution (Fig. 2). The following GFS model run shows the cooler result (Fig. 3). Therefore, forecast confidence on potential important cold is on the table for the 11-15-day period. The risk is low, as indicated by the GFS ENS <32F threshold forecast, but monitoring is now required.