A Dry Southern Canada MAY-JUL 2026 Forecast by Canadian Meteorological Center

Climate Impact Company Daily Feature

Issued: Friday, May 1, 2026

Highlight: CMC 90-day outlook for Canada implicates North-central and Coastal Northwest U.S. for a dry late spring to mid-summer season.

Fig. 1-2: The Canadian Meteorological Center latest 90-day temperature and precipitation outlook valid for MAY/JUN/JUL 2026.

Discussion: The latest Canadian Meteorological Center (CMC) temperature and precipitation probabilistic 90-day outlook valid for MAY/JUN/JUL 2026 across Canada yields country-wide warmer than normal temperature with dryness favored across Southern Canada with a wet risk across Northern Canada (Fig. 1-2).Implied by the outlooks is above normal high pressure in Southwest Canada and Ontario for late spring to mid-summer 2026 where the climate pattern is generally warmer/drier than normal while Pacific moisture rides north of the high-pressure ridge locations to bring wet risk to northwest and northeast Canada.

Anticipated in the U.S. is a northern shift of the Southwest U.S. high pressure ridge which has produced a record warm start to 2026 across much of the West and Central States as meteorological summer arrives. The CMC outlook suggests the high-pressure ridge may be more likely to shift to South-central Canada rather than Southwest Canada. The implication (by CMC) is (also) developing dryness across the Northern Great Plains, Upper Midwest, and possibly Midwest U.S. Also implied is a less aggressive warm and dry regime in Southwest Canada.